Experience is a poor predictor of expertise

Anders Ericsson in the Cambridge Handbook of Expertise and Expert Performance (2006) writes:

The number of years of experience in a domain is a poor predictor of attained performance.

The review from Time (2.28.08) continues:

Ericsson's primary finding is that rather than mere experience or even raw talent, it is dedicated, slogging, generally solitary exertion—repeatedly practicing the most difficult physical tasks for an athlete, repeatedly performing new and highly intricate computations for a mathematician—that leads to first-rate performance. And it should never get easier; if it does, you are coasting, not improving.

Reminds me of what my boss said at the Wyoming hunting outfit: people who say they've got 12 years experience this, or 18 years experience that.... usually they just have one year experience repeated 18 times.